Mexican tomato production forecast at 3.4 million tons in 2018/19 campaign

Mexico’s fresh tomato production for 2018/19 is expected to be 3.4 million metric tons, assuming favourable weather conditions. The production area has been declining in recent times, but yields have increased due to a shift from open-field planting to protected agriculture areas. Protected agriculture is thriving in Mexico as producers become aware of the benefits in production, quality, pest control, and reduced risk exposure to climate change. The tomato planted area for 2018/19 is forecast at 49,600 hectares, which is slightly lower than in 2017/18. The area planted is very much affected by the US market conditions, as, in addition to supplying the domestic Mexican market, growers try to plant only what the US market will absorb.

During the winter season, the state of Sinaloa is the main producer and exporter of fresh tomatoes, while during the summer season, Baja California, Michoacán, Jalisco, and San Luis Potosi are the main producers. Exports are expected to reach 1.7 million tons in 2018/19, with the US remaining Mexico’s largest export market. However, these figures are difficult to estimate since the Tomato Suspension Agreement between the two countries is currently undergoing revision. The agreement, signed in 2013, is renegotiated every five years and sets different floor prices for Mexican fresh tomatoes during the summer and winter as well as specifying prices for open field/adapted-environment and controlled-environment production.